Odds On 2023 As Liz Truss Exit Date As Prime Minister

Update 18th October

A lot can change in a week in politics and since we wrote the original article on the likely dates and odds for Liz Truss exit from No.10 so much has already changed including the sacking of former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and the appointment of Jeremy Hunt. Hunt has started his new role by rolling back almost all of the tax cuts introduced in the mini-budget of September 23rd and in the eyes of most political commentators any credibility enjoyed by the Prime Minister has been erased entirely. The current betting odds ( October 18th) for when Liz Truss will leave office as Prime Minister are given below from William Hill – this is a fast changing market so odds are likely to keep changing.

Liz Truss Exit Date Betting Odds
	2022	8/15
	2023	7/4
	2024	12/1
	2025 Or Later	25/1

Original content published on 12th October

No-one would ever say the job of Prime Minister is an easy one.  So many responsibilities, so many crises to resolve, so much political maneovering, not to mention the need to keep the voters on side.  But after only a month in office, Liz Truss is fighting to assert her authority as a result of actions entirely of her own making.  

The mini budget, introduced the day before the Commons took a two-week break for the party conference season, has caused chaos.  The pound has dropped, mortgage products have been withdrawn, interest rates are on the rise and the Bank of England has been forced to step in to shore up the economy.  One of the headline proposals of the mini budget, the removal of the 45% tax bracket, has already been dropped as a result and the Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, has also been forced to bring forward his announcements on how his budget’s extensive tax cuts will be funded.

The political fall-out from the mini budget has also been enormous.  The Labour party has now leapt to 30 points ahead in the polls and Sir Keir Starmer must be dancing a jig as his prospects of leading Labour to a victory at the next election shoot up.  With her popularity rating plummeting from a rather mediocre -9 to a cataclysmically bad -47 after the Tory conference, it is hard to see how Liz Truss can now persuade her parliamentary party that she is the person who should lead the Conservatives into the next General Election which will be no later than January 2025.  So, just over two years to go (assuming Liz Truss does not opt for an early election which is frankly unlikely at the moment).  Will Liz last the course?

UK Bookmakers are taking bets on this very question and things aren’t looking so good for our PM just now.  Ladbrokes for example are offering the following odds on the Liz Truss Exit Date :

• 7/1 that Liz Truss will quit in the next three months ie during 2022
• 11/10 odds for Liz Truss to leave in 2023
• 9/4 odds for Liz Truss to leave Prime Minister’s post in 2024

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But Liz Truss shows no signs of wanting to leave of her own accord and it’s not that easy to force a Prime Minister out of office.  

One route would be a vote of no confidence in the House of Commons, normally tabled by an opposition party.  If the government were to lose, it would have 14 days before a second vote but opposition parties could try to form their own government.  If no resolution is forthcoming, an election would become inevitable.  However, it is unlikely that – with a landslide win in the 2019 elections under the leadership of former PM Boris Johnson – the government would fail to win a vote of no confidence in the House of Commons. 

A more likely scenario is that her fellow Tory MPs could force Liz Truss out of office.  During the leadership contest earlier this year, in the fifth and final ballot before two candidates were selected to go forward to the Conservative membership for the final decision, it was clear that Liz Truss did not command the support of the majority of the parliamentary party.  137 Tory MPs voted for the then-Chancellor Rishi Sunak with 113 votes tendered for Truss.  Since the mini budget, notable MPs such as Michael Gove and Penny Mordaunt have publicly expressed disagreement with government policies.  If disquiet continues to build, Tory MPs could opt to tender letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady, Chairman of the Tories’ 1922 Committee.  If sufficient letters are received (54 or so)  he will be forced to hold a vote which could force out Liz Truss and trigger a leadership contest.  Should this scenario happen it would increase the clamour for an early election which could well be risky for the Tories.  But, in the circumstances, it may be a risk they are willing to take.