Who’s Going Down? Predictive Insights on the 2024 Premier League Relegations

The Premier League relegation race can go down to the last day of the season. Last term things weren’t settled until the very last day, with Everton claiming a nervy 1-0 home win over Bournemouth to stay up at the expense of former champions Leicester City.

For the 2023/24 Premier League season, things look as if they might be up in the air again as other mitigating factors could play a big role in who stays up and who goes down, with some teams facing potential points deductions.

Here we look at the current state of relegation in the top flight, along with some UKClubSport for how things may play out.

Heading Down

Things look grim for both Sheffield United and Burnley. Both clubs sat on just 13 points after 26 rounds of top-flight action. A realistic target of a minimum of 30 points to get safe at the end of the season is such a long way off for them. Even if some miraculous revival were to happen, they both have horrendous goal differences. Sheffield United had a -44 goal difference and Burnley -33 after 26 fixtures.

Coming Up

Before we get into the Premier League relegation battle, let’s look at who is likely to be heading up to the EPL. Leicester City have been the runaway success of the Championship season and look likely to book a quick return to top-flight action.

Leeds have also come on very strongly with a big run of form that has put the Elland Road club firmly in the automatic promotion mix. Ipswich make up a likely three-way fight for the top two spots. The Tractor Boys came out of the gates fast, had a blip through December and January, but have lately clicked back into form.

Can the Hatters Hang On?

Burnley and Sheffield United are going down, who takes the third spot? Luton, the other of the three newly promoted clubs, are the favourites to fill it. The Hatters have impressed by not being afraid to take on teams as opposed to sitting back and trying to simply not get beaten.

That’s been refreshing, but wins have been hard to come by for them, and Luton were four points from safety with a game in hand, after 26 rounds of action. But they do have huge home games to come against three other teams who are in the relegation mix, namely Nottingham Forest, Brentford and Everton.

Troubled Trio

Nottingham Forest have sunk further into trouble this season with just three wins from early November. They have churned out some decent home results this term, but have had a tough start to 2024 and are going the wrong way.

Brentford have surprisingly been pulled into the relegation mire with some poor form that saw them lose 10 of 12 games from December through February. That’s a big slide that so far, not even the return of Ivan Toney has been able to help with.

Earlier this season Everton were docked 10 points for breaching financial rules which put them back in another relegation battle. But they were given four of the points back in February after an appeal – but the Toffees aren’t free and clear.

A nine-match winless streak from November to the end of February highlights ongoing struggles, and aside from the bottom two, Everton are the lowest-scoring team in the EPL. A positive for them is that they still have to play four of the five teams below them at Goodison Park.

Forest and Everton in the Dock

Everon face further financial charges and Nottingham Forest are in the same situation. If those hearings aren’t settled before the latest possible date in April, then once the charges come in, there will only be six games left of the season. If points are deducted from one, or both, it would shake up the relegation battle drastically and could hand the likes of Luton and Brentford a big lifeline.

Who Might It Be?

Taking potential points deductions off the table, let’s look at who is likely to take the drop. Luton are struggling the most, despite producing the most impressive displays of all the relegation candidates.

If it’s not them, then Nottingham Forest look to be in the biggest trouble. Everton have performed well enough against teams in the bottom half of the table this season, and Brentford have winnable home matches against teams beneath them to come.

Nottingham Forest in contrast have played all other teams in the bottom six at home already, leaving them with some stressful away days. Three of their seven remaining home matches are against Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool as well further threatening their Premier League status.