Brown Advisory Novices Chase Tips

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Preview

by Will Smith…

The second Grade 1 of Wednesday’s cards is the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, and again, it has a Willie Mullins inmate as general odds-on favourite – the hugely exciting Fact To File.

With 11 entries in total, and the potential for Gaelic Warrior, Embassy Gardens, Jamaico and Grey Dawning to go elsewhere, we could see a field of just 7, but it will be a high quality and select field whichever way connections choose for those with other options.

When considering whether you want to back a horse like Fact To File at odds-on, you have to detach yourself from the hype and the momentum that has built up behind him. On the positive side, the way he has galloped and jumped in his three chase starts to date has been progressive and both visually very impressive, and also evidentially he is extremely high-class, given what the number-crunching on the times he has clocked reveals.

But, on the flip side of that, he is running at an undulating track that takes a bit of knowing, he has tended to jump slightly right (which could be accentuated on the tight Old course), and he is running over further than he has ever gone before, which could also have an effect on that right-handed jumping tendency as his stamina and fatigue levels are tested late on.

He is no Gaelic Warrior when it comes to veering right, but nonetheless it is an angle worth looking at, and he won’t have an easy task by any means, with a whole host of potentially credible rivals like Montys Star, Stay Away Fay, Broadway Boy, Sandor Clegane and most notably should Dan Skelton run him here, Grey Dawning, who I would find it hard not to back each-way if he does.

Will Smith’s Brown Advisory Novices Chase Tips

Surely day one at least met every expectation, if not sublimely surpassed it in the glorious 45 minutes or so when Constitution Hill and Honeysuckle lit up the stage.

One of the main themes was the general up-to-expectation level of performance of the market leaders, and I think that is a theme that will probably carry on through Day Two of the Cheltenham Festival.

That extends itself to the first 5 in the market for the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, who I just can’t split – so it’s to the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at 2.10, that I feel the first betting opportunity of Day Two resides.

Market leader Gerri Colombe looks a potential class apart, and I have no inclination to take him on, but I do feel that utilising the market ‘without Gerri Colombe’ could be the way to go.

There looks to be a plenty of horses who will ensure this is run at an even tempo, and the next two in the market, The Real Whacker and Sir Gerhard, look to be vulnerable on one count or another.

The horse who is overpriced is undoubtedly Olly Murphy’s Thunder Rock, who represents the two best pieces of form coming into this race – the Dipper Novices’ Chase behind The Real Whacker and the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase behind Gerri Colombe.

So, at 12/1 each-way with Bet365 for 3 places in their market ‘without Gerri Colombe’, Thunder Rock will be stalked into the race, on ground he will enjoy, and at a trip that could unlock improvement.

Most of the main players for the RSA Chase have had their prep runs, and as for any market movements between now and the festival, I can see a weight of support coming for Henry De Bromhead’s likeable staying chaser Minella Indo.

Currently 6/1 second favourite, it is another case of a horse that I feel should be nearer favourite. As the jamboree of Festival Preview nights swings into action, it is quite conceivable that Minella Indo is exactly the type of horse that will be talked up hugely – and as a result, he could go off a lot shorter on the day.

The reasons that he will be a popular horse at the preview nights are exactly the same reasons that I fancy him for the race. He won last year’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at the extraordinary odds of 50/1 and went on to confirm that no fluke when winning, in similar no-nonsense fashion, the Grade 1 3m Novices’ Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival.

Henry De Bromhead has seen fit to go straight to the Festival off the back of just two chase runs, which would be a worry to some. But given he went into last year’s Festival having had just two novice hurdle runs, and without a win over hurdles, I don’t see this as a problem at all.

In both chase starts he has jumped well and displayed all the characteristics of a sound and clever staying chaser. Equally adept when meeting one on a long stride as he is when having to shorten.

These are comments that perhaps can’t be applied to current RSA Chase favourite, Champ, who fell on his only chase start at Cheltenham. He does have a big engine but could be vulnerable to confusion at his fences in a big field such as this. He may well be given another run in the Reynoldstown at Ascot, but the only win he has to his name going right-handed was at odds of 1/14 in a lowly Perth maiden hurdle.

Minella Indo has all the hallmarks of being a potential Gold Cup horse next season, and so at odds of 6/1, he looks a good bet to win this year’s RSA.