West Ham vs Liverpool Prediction Betting Tips & Preview
Brown Advisory Novices Chase Odds Selection Odds Fact To File 1/1 Stay Away Fay 3/1 Monty's Star 11/2 Grey…
Here are our Brown Advisory Novices Chase tips from our expert horse racing analysts Will Smith & David Young. Be sure to take a look at our other Cheltenham betting tips for each race and a list of the latest Cheltenham betting offers which show you which bookies are offering free bets, best odds guaranteed, extra places and much more on the 2025 Cheltenham Festival.
Use the search filters below to find a tips by day or by race
| Bookie | Selection | Best Odds | Market | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
Jango Baie | 20/1 | Ante Post
EW (3 Places) Brown Advisory Novices' Chase |
Place Bet |
Date of Tips: 17/12/2024
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (08:00 17/12/2024) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
18+. New accounts only. Must have a min. of 3 bets of £10 at odds of evens (2.0). Full T&Cs apply. Begambleaware.org #ad
The removal of the Grade 1 2m4f novices’ chase at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival will provide connections of genuine Graded novice chasers with a conundrum nearer March.
In line with that, there was one performance over the intermediate trip from last weekend’s action at Cheltenham which both knocked the eye out visually and also from a timings perspective too, and seems to have been massively underplayed by the layers in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase market.
There have been several impressive novices’ chase performances so far this season, with the likes of L’Eau Du Sud, Ballyburn, Inthepocket, Majborough, Dancing City and The Jukebox Man all laying down markers for Grade 1 options at next March’s Cheltenham Festival – be it Arkle or Brown Advisory.
However, in my opinion the best performance of any novice chaser so far this season sees that horse still available for his ideal target at extremely generous odds of 20/1 – Jango Baie was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles at the minimum trip, but despite that, his trainer Nicky Henderson was stating at that point, that he already needed 2m4f and certainly would do by the spring of last season.
That Jango Baie didn’t win after that has perhaps angled him away from the public view a touch, but you’d be hard pushed to suggest that he might not have won at Aintree over 2m4f on his final start of the campaign, but for being brought to a near standstill at the second last.
It’s testament to his ability and also stamina, that Jango Baie was able to pick up again at the end of well-run 2m4f on soft ground that day.
Fast forward to his chase debut last weekend at Cheltenham, and there is nothing about his performance in winning the 2m4½f novices’ chase on the Friday that doesn’t scream Grade 1-winning novice chaser in waiting.
In a race defined by the speed with which Caldwell Potter built into the race from about the point that they went out on the final circuit, Jango Baie was able to jump and travel with enthusiasm throughout at that tempo, and the response, class, and stamina showed when fairly surging clear up the hill off a building, strong pace suggested to me that it was a visually mighty performance.
Before getting too excited about such things, I’ve learnt to temper thoughts somewhat until comparing and contrasting various other races over the same obstacles at the same meeting. It’s fair to say that in doing so, I wasn’t disappointed, in fact my hunch that Jango Baie is something pretty special was only enhanced by the clock-crunching.
On the same card on Friday, Jango Baie had two other chases to compare with and most relevant being the veterans chase over the same course and distance. If you ran them side-by-side, despite a steady first few furlongs in comparison, Jango Baie had caught up with the winner Numitor by the first fence on the final circuit.
From that point, without much serious intention to do so, Jango Baie simply stepped it up from fence to fence, jumping the second last about 3.5 seconds ahead of Numitor, and then in extremely impressive fashion, he ran the final section from this point to the line an extra 3 seconds quicker.
Now, Numitor is in the form of his life at the moment, but I’m aware that he is a ‘veteran’ and a Graded novice chaser should be ‘beating’ such a horse, but when you consider the manner in which he did, carrying 5lbs more, then you’re looking at a 155+ rated performance.
Consider also Jango Baie’s run in comparison to the December Gold Cup the next day, which was run on exactly the same course configuration and despite the ground description having the ‘good in places’ removed, GoingStick readings suggested it was a tiny bit faster on the Saturday. So, all told it seems fair to assume the ground was pretty similar.
Anyhow, even it was marginally softer for the December Gold Cup, what Jango Baie did to the two horses that pulled clear of that field when run side-by-side, was striking also. Similar to the comparison with Numitor, Jango Baie was slightly behind Gemirande and Madara until just before the water jump on the final circuit.
From that point, Jango Baie again steadily pulled clear of Gemirande and Madara to the point where at the fence at the top of the hill he was about 2 seconds ahead, and then about 4 seconds ahead come the line as Jango Baie surged up the final climb.
Given Gemirande and Madara were carrying feather weights in comparison to Jango Baie, if you’re looking for a figure on what Jango Baie did in comparison to them, then you can certainly look at 160+. That is more than good enough to win a Brown Advisory in most years already, and that’s without further potential improvement to come upped to that 3m trip.
Something like the Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at Ascot in February would be a perfect springboard for Jango Baie into the Festival, and were he to win that at 3m, then surely 20/1 with William Hill or 888Sport would be a distant memory.
Looking at the others towards the top of the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase market, Ballyburn and Majborough could easily go for the Arkle and Dancing City and The Jukebox Man haven’t yet produced anything on the clock as good as Jango Baie has, over fences and also when hurdling.
At 20/1 each-way now, Jango Baie for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase 2025 is a great bet in my eyes. In recent seasons, he would have probably been a shoo-in for the 2m4f Grade 1, but the way in which he tore up the hill over 2m4½f on the New Course, makes me think that the bare 3m on the Old Course is just as suitable, if not more so for Jango Baie.
| Brown Advisory Chase | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Time | Distance | Type |
| Wed 12/03/2025 | 14:10 | 3m 1/2f | Chase |
The Brown Advisory Novices Chase, formally known as the RSA Chase, is a Grade 1 race that covers a distance of 3 miles. It is open to novice chasers aged five years or older and is run on the Old Course. The RSA Chase features 20 fences to be jumped and notable past winners include Denman, Bobs Worth, and Presenting Percy.
New customers only. Register with BETFRED50. Deposit £10+ via Debit Card and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org #ad
For new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. 18+ gambleaware.org #ad
1st single cash specials bet on the Selected EURO 2024 matches. Min odds EVS. Free Bet: accept via pop-up within 24 hours of qual, use in 7 days on Specials only. Stakes not returned. Click here for full T&Cs. Bet Responsibly. GambleAware.org 18+ #ad
New UK customers (Excluding NI) only. Mobile exclusive. Min Deposit £10. Min stake £10. Min odds Evs. Free bet applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. 30 days to qualify. Free bets expire in 7 days. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. Account & Payment method restrictions apply. 1 Free Bet offer per customer, household & IP Address only. 18+. T&Cs apply. #ad
Full T&Cs apply. New UK customers only. The qualifying bet should be either 1 Single or Accumulator (2+ selections) bet, start at £10, and have 1.9 or greater odds. 5 Free bets which must be placed with a minimum odds of 2 include: 1 x £10 Free bet on horse racing, 1 x £10 Free bet on football, 2 x 10 Free bet In-play, 1 x £10 Free bet Acca (min 3 selections). To unlock the offer, complete the first deposit via the banking app (Open banking). Max payout – £500. 7 day expiry. 18+. Begambleaware.org #ad
18+ If your first bet is a Lucky 15 on Horse Racing AK Bets will boost the return of that initial bet by 25% in the form of a Free Bet up to a value of £100. Applies to new customers who sign up to AK BETS via our approved partner websites with promo code AKLUCKY100 T&Cs Apply. If your first bet is a4+ Fold accumulator on Football, AK Bets will boost the profit of that initial bet by 25% in the form of a Free Bet up to a value of £100. Applies to new customers who sign up to AK BETS via our approved partner websites with promo code AKFOOTBALL100 T&Cs Apply BeGambleAware #ad
18+. GambleAware.org #ad
Bet £5 Get £20: 18+ Eligible UK+IRE players. Paypal & some deposit & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 = 4x £5 free bets. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. No cashout, restrictions + T&Cs apply
by Will Smith…
The second Grade 1 of Wednesday’s cards is the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, and again, it has a Willie Mullins inmate as general odds-on favourite – the hugely exciting Fact To File.
With 11 entries in total, and the potential for Gaelic Warrior, Embassy Gardens, Jamaico and Grey Dawning to go elsewhere, we could see a field of just 7, but it will be a high quality and select field whichever way connections choose for those with other options.
When considering whether you want to back a horse like Fact To File at odds-on, you have to detach yourself from the hype and the momentum that has built up behind him. On the positive side, the way he has galloped and jumped in his three chase starts to date has been progressive and both visually very impressive, and also evidentially he is extremely high-class, given what the number-crunching on the times he has clocked reveals.
But, on the flip side of that, he is running at an undulating track that takes a bit of knowing, he has tended to jump slightly right (which could be accentuated on the tight Old course), and he is running over further than he has ever gone before, which could also have an effect on that right-handed jumping tendency as his stamina and fatigue levels are tested late on.
He is no Gaelic Warrior when it comes to veering right, but nonetheless it is an angle worth looking at, and he won’t have an easy task by any means, with a whole host of potentially credible rivals like Montys Star, Stay Away Fay, Broadway Boy, Sandor Clegane and most notably should Dan Skelton run him here, Grey Dawning, who I would find it hard not to back each-way if he does.
Surely day one at least met every expectation, if not sublimely surpassed it in the glorious 45 minutes or so when Constitution Hill and Honeysuckle lit up the stage.
One of the main themes was the general up-to-expectation level of performance of the market leaders, and I think that is a theme that will probably carry on through Day Two of the Cheltenham Festival.
That extends itself to the first 5 in the market for the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, who I just can’t split – so it’s to the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at 2.10, that I feel the first betting opportunity of Day Two resides.
Market leader Gerri Colombe looks a potential class apart, and I have no inclination to take him on, but I do feel that utilising the market ‘without Gerri Colombe’ could be the way to go.
There looks to be a plenty of horses who will ensure this is run at an even tempo, and the next two in the market, The Real Whacker and Sir Gerhard, look to be vulnerable on one count or another.
The horse who is overpriced is undoubtedly Olly Murphy’s Thunder Rock, who represents the two best pieces of form coming into this race – the Dipper Novices’ Chase behind The Real Whacker and the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase behind Gerri Colombe.
So, at 12/1 each-way with Bet365 for 3 places in their market ‘without Gerri Colombe’, Thunder Rock will be stalked into the race, on ground he will enjoy, and at a trip that could unlock improvement.
Most of the main players for the RSA Chase have had their prep runs, and as for any market movements between now and the festival, I can see a weight of support coming for Henry De Bromhead’s likeable staying chaser Minella Indo.
Currently 6/1 second favourite, it is another case of a horse that I feel should be nearer favourite. As the jamboree of Festival Preview nights swings into action, it is quite conceivable that Minella Indo is exactly the type of horse that will be talked up hugely – and as a result, he could go off a lot shorter on the day.
The reasons that he will be a popular horse at the preview nights are exactly the same reasons that I fancy him for the race. He won last year’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at the extraordinary odds of 50/1 and went on to confirm that no fluke when winning, in similar no-nonsense fashion, the Grade 1 3m Novices’ Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival.
Henry De Bromhead has seen fit to go straight to the Festival off the back of just two chase runs, which would be a worry to some. But given he went into last year’s Festival having had just two novice hurdle runs, and without a win over hurdles, I don’t see this as a problem at all.
In both chase starts he has jumped well and displayed all the characteristics of a sound and clever staying chaser. Equally adept when meeting one on a long stride as he is when having to shorten.
These are comments that perhaps can’t be applied to current RSA Chase favourite, Champ, who fell on his only chase start at Cheltenham. He does have a big engine but could be vulnerable to confusion at his fences in a big field such as this. He may well be given another run in the Reynoldstown at Ascot, but the only win he has to his name going right-handed was at odds of 1/14 in a lowly Perth maiden hurdle.
Minella Indo has all the hallmarks of being a potential Gold Cup horse next season, and so at odds of 6/1, he looks a good bet to win this year’s RSA.
Top Casinos
Top New Bookmakers
Top Offers
West Ham vs Liverpool Prediction Betting Tips & Preview
Brown Advisory Novices Chase Odds Selection Odds Fact To File 1/1 Stay Away Fay 3/1 Monty's Star 11/2 Grey…
Tottenham vs Wolverhampton Prediction Betting Tips & Preview
Brown Advisory Novices Chase Odds Selection Odds Fact To File 1/1 Stay Away Fay 3/1 Monty's Star 11/2 Grey…
Top Rated Bookmakers
Fulham vs Bournemouth Prediction Betting Tips & Preview
Brown Advisory Novices Chase Odds Selection Odds Fact To File 1/1 Stay Away Fay 3/1 Monty's Star 11/2 Grey…
Everton vs Nottingham Forest Prediction Betting Tips & Preview
Brown Advisory Novices Chase Odds Selection Odds Fact To File 1/1 Stay Away Fay 3/1 Monty's Star 11/2 Grey…
Crystal Palace vs Southampton Prediction Betting Tips & Preview
Brown Advisory Novices Chase Odds Selection Odds Fact To File 1/1 Stay Away Fay 3/1 Monty's Star 11/2 Grey…
Best Football Bookies
