Champion Hurdle Tips

Champion Hurdle Preview

At the 6-day declaration stage, I expressed how perhaps the Nicky Henderson pair Iberico Lord and Luccia could be interesting in a market ‘without Champion Hurdle favourite State Man’, however having gone through the final field of 8, and armed with the knowledge that there might be some more short, sharp rain on Tuesday morning, I have come down on another option in that particular market.

I’ve no interest in taking on State Man in the outright market, but with plenty of firms offering the market ‘without favourite State Man’ already, it is a great time to make my recommendation – which is Nemean Lion at a general 10/1 (and 11/1 in a place if available to you).

It is a win only recommendation, as slightly annoyingly the 8-runner final field means that there is only 7 in a market without that favourite, and backing each-way for 2 places in a 7-runner race is just about the worst value each-way bet you could strike.

Irish Point is only running here to give the owner a runner in the race, safe in the knowledge that they have the Stayers Hurdle favourite Teahupoo, and Irish Point’s 2m form is a universe below the level to be competitive in even this average a Champion Hurdle. He could improve of course, as a young horse, but I’m sceptical.

I have gone cold on Iberico Lord and Luccia, as there just seems to be too much smoke about the poor form of the Nicky Henderson yard, for there not to be a fire there.

So, with the fact that Nemean Lion beat Colonel Mustard so comfortably in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton, it leaves just Zarak The Brave to beat for me in that market, and I would envisage Zarak The Brave to be a much better horse on better ground.

The Greatwood Hurdle is an interesting piece of form, as Nemean Lion has 9½ lengths to find with Iberico Lord and 2½ lengths to find with Luccia for this bet to land. There are a number of reasons to think that can happen though, not least that there would have to be a doubt about the Henderson pair reproducing that form.

But also, that Nemean Lion was giving fair chunks of weight to both of them, and he was ridden much more conservatively and had to switch wider at points in that race, all mean he could be much much closer, and potentially turn around that form, with the prospect of soft or heavy ground in Nemean Lion’s favour and also what will hopefully be a positive ride like in the Kingwell.

At 10/1 generally, Nemean Lion gives us a decent value bet in the Champion Hurdle, if only in the market ‘without favourite State Man.’ But a 10/1 winner is a 10/1 winner after all…

Epatante and Goshen will be very popular with many punters for next season’s Champion Hurdle, and rightly so in both cases. But there are reasons to believe that at 12/1, Abacadabras is an absolutely brilliant bet.

Shishkin and Abacadabras came a long way clear in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last week, and were streets clear of the opposition – considering much went wrong for both of them during the race. Shishkin looks set to go chasing and will be a strong favourite for the Arkle you would imagine, so the way is clear for Gordon Elliott to finally land the Champion Hurdle that he has so coveted for years.

The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle was run in a time 1.17 seconds slower than Epatante clocked in the Champion Hurdle. Basically, if the Supreme had been run in a parallel universe at the same time as the Champion Hurdle, then Shiskin and Abacadabras would have been snapping at Epatante’s heels all the way up the hill, and who knows what would have played out.

Epatante, much to Barry Geraghty’s credit, received a dream trip through the Champion Hurdle – contrast that with the Supreme, where Abacadabras had to begin the race further back than Davy Russell wanted, due to the standing start. Then the carnage caused by Asterion Forlonge at three out and two out, hindered Abacadbras’ momentum at a crucial stage – while not only that, due to the fall of Elixir D’Ainay, it left Abacadabras in front an eternity earlier than Russell would have liked.

Abacadabras was given a Champion Hurdle entry for the festival just gone, and if he had run there, he would have been placed at the very least. One year on, one year stronger, maybe slightly better ground, and with a better trip through the race, and Abacadabras can definitely win the 2021 Champion Hurdle.

With the first smattering of confirmed Cheltenham Festival entries out this week, it makes sense to take an ante-post look at the day one showpiece race – the Champion Hurdle.

To say that it has been a muddy picture thus far would be an understatement, and Epatante has extracted herself from the mire and been elevated to a best priced 7/2 favourite, with two impressive performances.

On Boxing Day, she beat Silver Streak by an admittedly cosy 5 lengths, whereas that same horse was beaten 15 lengths by the ill-fated Espoir D’Allen in last year’s Champion Hurdle. She needs to improve again, and can, but it is a worry that she put in a poor performance in last year’s Mares Novice Hurdle at the Festival.

Wind back the clock to November 2018, and Saldier was in the process of giving Espoir D’Allen a proper race in a Grade 3 at Naas, and to my eye was actually travelling better, when clipping the top of the last hurdle and coming to grief. At the time, consensus was that it wasn’t strong form, but Espoir D’Allen went on to dispel that notion.

Saldier was then sent off an unconsidered 7/1 shot, in fact, the least favoured of three Willie Mullins trained horses when impressively winning the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle on reappearance this season. He beat last year’s Supreme winner Klassical Dream, whose temperament is in danger of wasting his talent.

Back in fourth was subsequent Leopardstown Grade 1 Matheson Hurdle winner Sharjah, who would surely need an unlikely ground description approaching ‘good’ were he to win a Champion Hurdle. While Petit Mouchoir was second, arriving race fit and assuming front-running duties – often favoured around the tight Punchestown hurdle track.

Saldier has the best form, and there could potentially be more to come, and looks way too big at 8/1 with William Hill. The only worry is the slight setback he had after the Morgiana, but a positive update was issued this week, and if he got there on the day, he’d surely be shorter.

Having spent a few days reflecting and analysing events at the Dublin Racing Festival, and with the news that Irish Champion Hurdle winner Honeysuckle will be kept to her own sex on day one of the Cheltenham Festival, I have found myself compelled to suggest another bet in the Champion Hurdle – in addition to the 8/1 already advised about Saldier a few weeks ago.

When you consider that Honeysuckle was 4/1 in places after winning at Leopardstown on Saturday, I find it increasingly hard to fathom how the horse that was beaten only a ½ length second, closing all the way, can be backed at 25/1 – with the NRNB concession an added boost.

Darver Star has only had one run out of novice company, due to a quirk in when he broke his maiden over hurdles, but when you consider just how well he ran in that only open Grade 1 assignment, there must be scope for more improvement.

Granted an extra ½ furlong, potentially softer ground and a steep hill into the mix, and he improves again to my eye. Given that Petit Mouchoir – just about the most solid litmus test for any Champion Hurdle form on the western side of the Irish Sea – was beaten into third, and you have all the makings of a hugely overpriced horse trained by the man that saddled last year’s Champion Hurdle winner.

Some doubters will point to the fact that he was only 3^rd in the Royal Bond Novices’ Hurdle the time before, and that was only against novices. But I urge you to watch that race again, and observe how Darver Star is stuck behind runners as Envoi Allen and Abacadbras are quickening away. Once in the clear, he is steadily closing those two down.

Both Envoi Allen and Abacadabras have Champion Hurdle entries, such is how highly they are thought of in Gordon Elliott’s stable. Time may tell that this year’s novice hurdlers, such as these, are already close to being a better bunch than the Champion Hurdle crop.

Either way, I see no reason for Darver Star being as big as 25/1, and could be a left-field flyer that has a squeak in such an open year.