Grand Annual Chase Tips

Grand Annual Chase Preview

Dan Skelton is often a man with a plan when it comes to targeting horses at certain races, and after Unexpected Party didn’t make the cut in last year’s Grand Annual, and looking at the campaign that Unexpected Party has had this season following a nice win at Chepstow, it’s not hard to surmise that coming back to the Grand Annual has been an itch Skelton wants to scratch.

At 16/1 each-way with Bet365 for 5 places, I am more than happy to wade in with just the one dart to throw in this race, as the other horse that I liked (Libberty Hunter) is now into too short a price for such an inexperienced horse in this type of race.

Inexperienced is not a term you could angle at Unexpected Party, as he has now notched up 11 starts over fences, including 6 starts here at Cheltenham, (4 of them over fences,) but quite notably this will be his first start in a handicap chase over a 2m trip.

I have a strong opinion that this horse will produce a career best run over 2m on soft ground, in a well-run race, where he tracks the pace no further back than midfield. Hopefully he gets the chance to show that in this race, with all the potential traffic problems that it can bring.

Unexpected Party ran a cracker in last year’s Turners Novices’ Chase, and also in this season’s Paddy Power Gold Cup – where on both occasions he travelled up nicely until the second last, and then not getting home over 2m4f+ on this testing track.

There would still be a small doubt that he may prefer a flatter track and/or a less stiff finish, but given it looks like a plan that the Skeltons are clearly willing to try and execute again, I believe he will be tuned up and ready.

So, at 16/1 each-way with Bet365 for 5 places, Unexpected Party looks to be a lovely value bet, granted what I think is his perfect set up for the very first time in his career.

Steve Mullington’s Grand Annual Chase Tips

As soon as I saw odds of 25/1 quoted for Gordon Elliott’s Call Me Lyreen in this 2m Grand Annual my eyes lit up.

The seven-year-old is coming back from a 154-day break and has got the excellent Sam Ewing booked down to ride him. Quietly fancied by Elliott, Call Me Lyreen has got to have a solid each-way chance if he has brushed up his chasing technique a little and he will certainly be fit.

Other Grand Annual sleepers who can belie their odds are the course and distance winner Dads Lad (10/1), who has a much similar profile to Call Me Lyreen, and Before Midnight (20/1) who enjoys this course and distance as the October Meeting 2021 proved.

Call Me Lyreen – EW @ 25/1 with Bet365

The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase at 4.50 on the Wednesday of the Cheltenham Festival could be a very classy renewal, with at this stage, 9 horses rated 150 or above and a further 14 rated 140 or above.

But looking through the profile of the entries, there are plenty that have been in very good form throughout the course of the winter, and of course will be battle hardened as a result, but equally may not have much left in the locker when it comes to improvement.

It is very true that you don’t have to be an improver to win the Grand Annual, and just having a suitability to the nature of the race can count for plenty. But in the last 10 years, novices have won it three times, and of those Alderwood won it in 2013 with only 4 chase starts and Chosen Mate won it in 2020 with just 3 chase starts.

So, it can be done, and what you need is a horse that looks ready for such a cavalry charge, has the requisite pace to hold a position, and then have enough left for a finishing kick.

Step forward Emma Lavelle’s Red Rookie, who at 20/1 each-way with Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook, for 5 places and also with NRNB, while possessing all of those things, also represents a horse with a huge amount more to come over fences.

I don’t know if this is the plan, as he holds an Arkle entry, and could also be one that connections opt for another low-key run before targeting Aintree. But if he is Grand Annual-bound, there isn’t a horse in the race that possesses the untapped potential of Red Rookie.

The strapping 7-year-old chestnut hasn’t been seen since winning a fiercely run Hereford novice chase with consummate ease, despite the sharp track, ground and course configuration (better left-handed) all playing against him.

Tom Bellamy was brilliant on him that day, as the pair had hit the deck in a good handicap at Ascot the time before. It was a fall that could perhaps be attributed to the attentions of a loose horse, and for all that it’s far from ideal, many horses learn plenty from a fall, and on the evidence of Hereford Red Rookie certainly has.

I’ve no doubt Red Rookie would have been involved in the finish at Ascot, in a race contested by leading Grand Annual fancies Brave Seasca and Amarillo Sky, and has crept nicely under the radar for this prestigious prize.

At 20/1 each-way with Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook for those 5 places and with NRNB, should he line up at 4.50 on Wednesday, he would surely be much shorter.

Last year’s winner Sky Pirate is back for more, and has as good a chance as any. While the likes of Buddy Rich, Ciel De Niege and most notably Coeur Sublime would have live chances also. Coeur Sublime is the one that would interest me most if he came here as opposed to taking up his Arkle entry.

With Ferny Hollow out, connections of Coeur Sublime could be tempted into thinking they’d have a better chance of winning the novice race on day one, compared to running from a high enough mark here – a mark 14lbs higher than Red Rookie, who I wouldn’t mind betting has significantly closed that ratings gap by the end of this season.

The Grand Annual is always a compelling spectacle, as some of the best 2m handicap chasers go hell for leather. The race could potentially be even more speedily-defined this year, as it has moved to day two from its usual sit on the final day. Hence it will now be on the Old Course, which does favour slightly more pacey types compared to the stamina test of the New Course.

As opposed to the winner coming from the clouds, we might well see a few more fighting out the finish from a prominent early and mid-race position.

This could well suit our selection, the Joseph O’Brien-trained Embittered, who is advised at 15/2 each-way with 888 Sport, on the basis that they top price, 5 places for each-way terms, and also ‘Non-Runner, No Bet’. This last concession is important as Embittered does hold an entry in the Arkle, but surely the fact he has a chance of winning the Grand Annual, as opposed to being fifth or sixth in the Arkle, will sway connections.

Embittered has run in no fewer than five Grade 1’s in his career to date, and has a record in them that reads: 4th, 5th, 3rd, 4th, 4th. On the back of two of these Grade 1’s last season over hurdles, he went into the County Hurdle at the Festival off a mark of 146. He ran a huge race in that to finish a close up third, doing much the best of those horses that raced prominently. Every other horse in the first eight home came from behind Embittered in the run, and yet he was able to keep maintaining his gallop in the closing stages.

Embittered’s size and scope against smaller, more nimble types in the County Hurdle that day suggested that he would improve over fences. Strictly, he hasn’t done so as yet, but this is his fifth start of the season, runs off the identical mark of 146 that he did in last year’s County Hurdle, and he has very much caught the eye in his four chase starts.

Runner-up spots behind the classy Easywork and Andy Dufresne were followed by fourth spots in Grade 1’s the last twice. His run at the Dublin Racing Festival behind Energumene was much better than it looked in the end, as he was cruising in behind the leaders when hampered by the fall of Captain Guinness two out.

Joseph O’Brien has another chance in the race with Entoucas, but despite a few eye-catching runs from him of late, I am coming round to the fact that he isn’t the hardiest battler and hasn’t got the experience of Cheltenham that Embittered has. Plus, he could well be ground dependant also, whereas Embittered looks to be pretty versatile in that respect.

Elsewhere, Venetia Williams could hold chances with Ibleo, Fanion D’Estruval or Funambule Sivola. While you wouldn’t rule out Umbrigado in his current form, but I wonder if he is best on a flat track.

All in all, I think Embittered is a very good each-way bet at 15/2 with 888 Sport, to be very well suited to the unique Grand Annual test, and if confirmed for the race he could shorten significantly.