Jack Richards Novices Chase Tips

Sometimes I get a gut feel for a horse, and have an inkling for an ante-post bet, only to allow the conscious side of my brain to take over, and with my grandmother’s words ‘patience is a virtue’ ringing in my ears, I allow the gut feeling to be supressed!

That was the case with Ginnys Destiny before yesterday’s novice handicap chase encounter at Cheltenham’s Trials Day, as a range of prices between 14/1 and 20/1 was available for the Turners Novices Chase on Thursday 14th March, the third day of this year’s Cheltenham Festival.

In allowing yesterday’s race to play out first, I am going to admit to something that is extremely rare. The performance of Ginnys Destiny was that impressive to me, in a number of ways, that the price-cut into a best priced 9/1 each-way with Betfair Sportsbook isn’t actually anywhere near extreme enough.

That is a rarity, in the age of ante-post quotes/moves/cuts sometimes taking on the ridiculous, headline-grabbing persona that they do these days.

Firstly, considering the reasons why he hasn’t shortened to a skinnier price, and chief among them is the looming presence of the monster that is Gaelic Warrior. However, he has twice been beaten at the Cheltenham Festival, and given his obvious preference for going right-handed, he has to be opposed at the current prices.

Ginnys Destiny has run to a rating of somewhere in the mid-160 region by winning yesterday, and so Gaelic Warrior would have to run to somewhere in the mid-170’s (or higher) surely to counteract his right-handed tendency. That is without factoring in the scary prospect that Ginnys Destiny could improve further, as without doubt he has to be the most improved chaser in training this season.

Crunching the evidence from yesterday’s rampant win is enlightening, and comparing his race with the handicap chase over the same course and distance won by Ga Law 35 minutes later, in addition to the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase over 2m½f, paints Ginnys Destiny in an extremely favourable light.

Running Ginnys Destiny and Ga Law side-by-side shows that Ginnys Destiny opens up a 2½ second advantage in the first third of the race, over the likes of Ga Law and the ever-dependable Il Ridoto (eventually beaten 6½ lengths by Ga Law), and maintains that throughout with a display of galloping and jumping that was both sparkling, but also strikingly efficient on the clock.

The only point in the race that Ga Law gets any time back on Ginnys Destiny is after the last, when Ginnys Destiny had the race won and was idling, and even then, it was only ½ second.

Presuming that Ga Law and Il Ridoto have run their race, which is a pretty safe assumption – in comfortably ‘beating’ them, Ginnys Destiny was carrying 6lbs and 8lbs respectively more than the 150-rated Ga Law and the 148-rated Il Ridoto. This is where I get the mid-160’s rating quoted above, and it may be actually an underestimation.

Perhaps even more striking is the notion that if you dropped Ginnys Destiny into the Clarence House Chase at the first fence of that Grade 1, (bearing in mind that Ginnys Destiny has already run 4 furlongs and jumped 3 fences,) then he would have beaten Elixir Du Nutz and Jonbon by ½ length.

Just let that sink in… and in the interest of balance, clearly Jonbon didn’t run his race for obvious reasons, and Elixir Du Nutz is likeable and consistent but not a superstar.

But even still, whichever way you cut it, yesterday was a performance from Ginnys Destiny that warranted a price-cut of far greater magnitude than the 9/1 each-way available with Betfair Sportsbook, and so gets a 4-star ante-post recommendation for the Turners Novice’s Chase on Day 3 of the Cheltenham Festival.

As I see it, there are only 3 horses among the entries that could be competitive with Ginnys Destiny on this form, that he has crucially shown over the same course and distance as his Cheltenham Festival target.

Gaelic Warrior – his vulnerabilities explained above, Fact To File – could easily go for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase over 3m on the Wednesday, and ll Est Francais – who is a very unlikely runner by all accounts.

If you prefer to have the Non-Runner, Money Back concession on your side, then Ginnys Destiny is available at 8/1 with Paddy Power with that. I can safely say that if Ginnys Destiny turns up and runs his race, then there will not be 3 better horses than him.

For some reason, and looking back at previous years it is a recurring theme, the WhichBookie ante-post locker is quite notably front loaded with selections on Day One of the Cheltenham Festival.

So, in an effort to redress that balance somewhat, it is time to look deeper in to the week – and of course, I fancy this horse too, for those worrying that I’m merely trying to even things out!

The race in question is the Turners Novices’ Chase at 1.30 on the Thursday of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival, and at first glance the race looks at the mercy of the proven Grade 1 novices at the top of the market – Mighty Potter, Banbridge and Appreciate It haven’t done a huge amount wrong in their chasing careers to date.

However, for all that these three will have their supporters, and justified though they will be, I do feel this is more than just a 3-runner contest. That said, it may not be a large field that go to post, but one horse who looks set to be aimed here, and come the end of Wednesday at the Festival, might be the horse who can boast the best form coming into the Turners.

Balco Coastal is available at 14/1 each-way with Bet365, who not only offer Non-Runner, No Bet but also Best Odds Guaranteed, and that is a cracking price in my opinion. 12/1 more generally is available, and if I were to put a cap on what value may look like, regarding Balco Coastal’s chances, then I would suggest that would be anything double figures or higher.

The veiled ‘end of Wednesday’ reference two paragraphs up is in reference to the fact that Balco Coastal’s Scilly Isles Novice Chase Grade 1 form will be extensively tested in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase earlier that day.

The winner Gerri Colombe is currently a very solid favourite for that race, and the third home Thunder Rock is certainly no back number either. At various stages through that race, the way Balco Coastal jumped and travelled on the front end, (qualities that are perfectly suited to the chase track on the New course at Cheltenham,) served to put the ability of Gerri Colombe under real pressure.

A brief look at the rate of progression of Nicky Henderson’s Balco Coastal, since he has gone chasing, is quite startling. Since finding 2m and decent ground on chase debut too sharp at Newbury (admittedly in a race that has worked out very well,) Balco Coastal has won doing handstands in a decent handicap at Kempton Park, and then stepped forward a good chunk again to seriously contest the aforementioned Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase.

A left-handed track like Cheltenham will suit Balco Coastal, and as mentioned, a prominent run style will do too. While also, all types of ground seem to come alike to him, so in terms of assessing an ante-post bet, that can be all important.

Mighty Potter has taken extremely well to fences, but his only previous experience of Cheltenham was a wholly unsatisfying one last year, Banbridge is solid enough but perhaps has become a bit of a talking horse, while Appreciate It didn’t go with much zest at Leopardstown when last seen.

Clearly, the Turners Novices’ Chase at 1.30 on the Thursday of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival could be a pretty competitive affair, but if Balco Coastal continues to improve at a similar rate, then taking the 14/1 each-way with Bet365 right now, could prove to be a wise move.

The jumps juices are flowing again after a day of fascinating action at Chepstow yesterday, and in particular, those juices seem particularly potent in the Paul Nicholls’ camp as they had a brilliant day with four winners and a number of other horses running notably well.

Conversely, the day didn’t go as well for his main west country training rival Colin Tizzard, and he has seen fit to withdraw his lovely young chaser Fiddlerontheroof from today’s novice chase on the card, on account of the ground drying up.

It would’ve been great to see the physical progress that Fiddlerontheroof had made over the summer, but it seems he will remain under wraps for now, but that shouldn’t and won’t hinder me from suggesting the Cheltenham festival ante-post recommendation that was in the offing anyhow…

That is to suggest backing Fiddlerontheroof each-way for the 2021 Marsh Novices’ Chase (the opening race on the New Course on day three) at 33/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power or Boylesports. But what about Envoi Allen I hear you cry! Well, he was recommended as a bet at 5/1 for this race as early as April, in combination with Shishkin for the Arkle as an each-way double. Gordon Elliott’s flagbearer had the Marsh Novices’ Chase confirmed as the likely target earlier this week, so all is good there.

With that in mind, a quick scan down the list of those chasing Envoi Allen in the market, and it is very hard to find anything that has the race as a likely target. Shishkin will surely stick to 2m and the Arkle, The Big Getaway has already chased home Envoi Allen at Cheltenham and will presumably be upped in trip this season, Honeysuckle has much more likely options in trying to retain her Mares’ Hurdle crown or the new Mares’ Chase, Thyme Hill will stay over hurdles and bid for a Stayers’ Hurdle win, and Monkfish will stay at 3m surely too. Beyond that there is little else.

So, in taking the 33/1 each-way now, we could be sitting on a very appealing alternative option to Envoi Allen come March time. Joe Tizzard was quoted as saying that the race would be his likely target, and for a horse who reminds me quite markedly of Lostintranslation (second to Defi Du Seuil in the 2019 Marsh (then JLT) Novices’ Chase), I am excited to see how much he can improve and flourish for fences.

Sent off a well fancied 6/1 shot for last season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, the relative test of speed and a busy season combined to produce an under-par performance. Knockers will point to the fact that the form of his novice hurdling campaign will need improving upon, and of that I agree. However, if you look back to his point-to-point and bumper form, then it stacks up pretty nicely with some of the best young horses around.

Without a doubt, Fiddlerontheroof will come into his own over fences, and whenever we do see him out this season, it could become patently clear that he is no 33/1 shot for the opening race on the Thursday of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival.

5 weeks to go until the big show gets underway at Prestbury Park, and many punters will be getting itchy feet and wishing these 42 days to fly by. In a bid to calm the mind, avail yourselves of the 8/1 about Olly Murphy’s Itchy Feet for the race known as the Golden Miller – the Marsh Novices’ Chase – the curtain raiser as racing switches to the stiffer New Course on day three of the Cheltenham Festival.

It is only a matter of time before the former assistant to the genius that is Gordon Elliott, gets his Cheltenham Festival tally up and running. He claimed his first Grade 1 victory when Itchy Feet won the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown Park on Saturday in impressive fashion, and the much sought after festival winner surely won’t be long in coming.

The performance was visually impressive, and the way he sprinted up the hill at the Esher venue in the closing stages was notable. Sometimes when that is the case, it can mask some lesser elements of substance to the performance. But in this case, it highlighted the fact that Itchy Feet ran the final section of the race, from the Pond Fence, just under 2 seconds quicker than Dolos, the 157-rated winner of the 2m handicap chase earlier on the card.

Not only that, but he ran the final circuit of the race in a quicker time than those quality 2m handicap chasers also. Style and substance mixed together in equal measure. The market for the Marsh Novices’ Chase is very much up in the air at the moment, and while Faugheen is the current favourite, and would be a huge danger, you feel it was all about getting him to peak for his tear-jerking effort at the Dublin racing Festival last weekend.

Whereas, in the case of Itchy Feet, it would be a shock if he were to not improve again for his Cheltenham Festival assignment, for a trainer who will be itching to have a memorable four days in March.

A brilliant third in last year’s Supreme Novice Hurdle, Itchy Feet has the look of a real chaser, and is a great bet at 8/1 generally.