Here you'll find football corners betting tips from our expert football analyst, Liam Johnson. All of the corner predictions published here on WhichBookie are 100% free.
Date published: September 7, 2024
The latest boxing betting tips from expert analysts. 100% free boxing tips for all of the major fights throughout the year taking place in the various divisions.
Naoya “The Monster” Inoue (27-0, 24KO) will make the second defence of his undisputed super-bantamweight crown against former world champion TJ Doheny (26-4, 20KO) on Tuesday, September 3, at the Ariake Arena in Tokyo, Japan.
UK fight fans will be able to watch all the action from 7:30am Tuesday morning, live on Sky Sports.
A man who needs no introduction, but let’s go through it anyway… Inoue is an unbeaten four-weight world champion; two-weight undisputed champion; first and only boxer ever to win the undisputed championship at super-bantamweight; first boxer to win undisputed championship at bantamweight in a four-belt era; pound-for-pound top 3 in the world; Japan’s greatest boxer in history and future Hall of Famer.
The Ring Magazine have him placed at No.2 in their P4P rankings, sandwiched between #1 Oleksandr Usyk and #3 Terence Crawford. These top three are the only boxers in history to become undisputed champions in two weights, in a four-belt era.
Trained by his father Shingo, he fights in the same place where he knocked out Briton Paul Butler to win the undisputed world bantamweight title in December 2022; stopped then-unified super bantamweight champion Stephen Fulton in July 2023; and dominated Marlon Tapales over 10 rounds last December to become the undisputed super-bantamweight king.
Now he defends that undisputed super-bantamweight championship for the second time, as he aims to settle at the weight before potentially moving up again to chase more greatness.
Irish-born TJ Doheny, 37 from Australia, is a former IBF World super-bantamweight champion, with a decent record and a high KO ratio at 76%.
Durable Doheny is 4-0 when fighting on Japanese soil, including a knockout of unbeaten Bryl Bayogos on the Inoue-Luis Nery undercard at the Tokyo Dome last May.
His last three bouts have all ended in knockouts – rounds four twice, and a stunning first-round stoppage of 11-0 Japhethlee Llamido to retain his WBO Asia Pacific super-bantam title. His WBO #2 ranking is what earned him his shot at the king.
His quartet of losses have all come on points, to Daniel Roman; Ionut Baluta; Michael Conlan; Sam Goodman; however, despite making it to the final bell, he was dropped several times in three of those four fights.
This is the reason Matchroom Boxing boss Eddie Hearn has called this fight “a horrific mismatch!” Many others tend to agree, believing Inoue will become the first man to KO TJ.
So what will happen when ‘The Monster’ meets ‘The Power’? Let’s explore…
I have to agree with Eddie – it’s a complete mismatch!
Doheny is WBO #2, never been stopped and undefeated on Japanese soil, so his reputation in Asia is highly respected, so you can argue there’s a solid case for making this match, but in reality, it’s only going one way.
TJ fights with his right hand down low, exposing his entire face. And body too, his guard is very open, with his right down low and his left up high, so his body is going to be an easy target, which Michael Conlan proved in their 2021 fight.
He’s never been stopped in his four defeats, but he’s been dropped by fighters far less powerful than Inoue. Daniel Roman, Michael Conlan, Sam Goodman all managed to deck Doheny and not one of them is known for their power, so just imagine what ‘The Monster’ could do.
He’s a tough Irishman, no doubt, and he knows how to survive, but no amount of durability or bravery can withstand the power of the Japanese ‘Monster’. He’s just too open for Inoue, who will land at will.
That said, TJ has the proven power to knock opponents out with a single punch, so the Irishman is a risky opponent for anyone. And we have seen that Inoue, despite his freakish power and God-given talent, is actually human; firstly in the epic back-and-firth battle with Nonito Donaire that went the distance in 2019, then in his last fight with Luis Nery where he was sensationally dropped by a left hook in the first round.
Doheny is a force when trading in close quarters, which is where Nery was able to do what no one else has ever done, but Inoue has speed, strength and skill. He can knock you out to either body or head, and that can come at any time during the 12-rounds, his power doesn’t diminish over time.
The champion’s last four knockouts have all come past the midway mark in his fights, from round six onwards, averaging 8.75 rounds. So when up against a boxer that’s well respected for his durability and heart, you could do your calculations accordingly, however, I expect Inoue to win by knockout very early this time – in rounds 1-3.
Maidstone’s Sam Noakes (14-0, 13KO) defends his European lightweight title to former European Union titlist Gianluca Ceglia (21-4-1, 4KO) on Friday, September 6, at his regular stomping ground, the York Hall.
Noakes has gone from strength to strength since turning pro with Frank Warren in 2019, notching up 13 KOs from as many fights, now headlining York Hall events where his army of fans only have to travel 30 miles along the A2 to take the roof off in support of their local hero.
As his KO record suggests, the 27-year-old youngster is heavy-handed, aggressive and a great finisher. He tore through an unbeaten English champion in Lewis Sylvester in no time at all, even though the Hull prospect had knocked out his last opponent in the first round to earn his shot at the vacant British lightweight belt.
Noakes had no respect for that record, tearing through Sylvester to drop him twice in the third, then again in the fourth to finish the one-sided fight in 11 minutes. On paper, they were equally matched; in reality however, it was a lopsided beatdown.
The rising star has completed the set already, collecting English, Commonwealth, British and European titles, all within just 14 fights, meaning the next step is world level. And having won the WBC International Silver title in 2021, recording five successful defences, the high-flying Brit is currently ranked #11 in the WBC World lightweight ratings.
Trained by Alan Smith at the iBox Gym in Bromley, it’s the Kent puncher’s third fight of the year and fourth fight within 10 months. His Italian opponent has been less active, fighting only once this year and this will be just his third fight within the last 12 months.
A former Italian and European Union champion, 34-year-old Ceglia is an all-round boxer who carries a high guard, from which he flicks out his jab and also likes to swing a left hook in from around the side.
It’s clear from both his record and his fights that he lacks power, but in his rematch with Pasquale Di Silvio, after they fought to a draw in their previous fight, he was able to KO his countryman with a single big straight right to the head. Di Silvio wasn’t knocked out, but he was too hurt to get back up, awarding the vacant EBU-EU title to Ceglia via seventh-round KO.
Both boxers have shared 12 rounds each with veteran Frenchman Yvan Mendy. Noakes was taken the distance for the first time in his short five-year career last April by the Parisien. But the French ‘Lion’ has never been stopped in 57 bouts, which includes defeats to Viktor Postol, Luke Campbell and Denys Berinchyk.
Ceglia was dominated by Mendy over 12-rounds in April 2022 for the same European lightweight title that Sam now holds, so it’s his second shot at the blue belt. The scores were very one-sided, with one judge ruling at 117-110.
Noakes was able to shut Mendy out, with scores of 120-108, which gives a clear indicator as to the levels these two opponents are at – Noakes won by a landslide over Mendy, who controlled Ceglia comfortably.
Ceglia has been able to win four fights in a row since that last defeat to Mendy, which includes a 12-round mixed decision over Frank Urquiaga to claim the European Silver title and achieve his mandatory status. Urquiaga was the opponent that signalled Anthony Crolla’s retirement, when the Mancunian struggled over their 10-round contest in 2019, which the Brit just won via mixed decision.
It’s his second shot at the EBU belt, but it could be a case of ‘be careful what you wish for’, as Noakes is impatiently chomping at the bit, having gone 12 rounds without a knockdown, something he hasn’t experienced before and won’t want to again.
I initially thought this was a mismatch., but Ceglia has earned his shot as the mandatory challenger, plus he is durable and tenacious. He has been dropped in fights before and come back to win, so he’s stubborn and won’t be a walkover.
As a former European Union champ and European title contender, the experienced Italian is no way out of his depth, but Sam Noakes is a clear favourite.
With Ceglia preferring such a high guard, there’s a huge section of his midriff available to target. A left hook to the body should be Noakes’ preferred shot, but also rolling underneath that frequent left hook to slam a right hook into the exposed left side could be a fight-ending shot.
Noakes showed against Sylvester that he can drop anyone in any way. The first knockdown came from a left hook to the body, the next a right hook to the middle, the final a right-left to the head.
Noakes does like to target the body, but against Mendy, who also has a high guard like Ceglia, the Frenchman was able to absorb all those body attacks. Showing maturity beyond his years, he was patient enough to do the rounds, but he has also said he’s desperate to get his KO streak going again.
Ceglia has shown he can take a shot, but if he is subjected to the same body blows that the teak-tough Mendy absorbed, I’m not confident he will be as strong enough to accept that kind of punishment.
Noakes has full respect for his opponent, believing that he could be in for a long night with the enduring European, but he’s also eager get another KO on his perfect record, so I can see that stoppage coming from body shots very early.
There’s a strong case the sturdy Ceglia could last a few rounds, but I believe the mighty Maidstone man is going to land clean and heavily from opening bell and will vigorously finish the fight in a flash.
Noakes to win by TKO within the first four rounds.
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Tim Rickson is the WhichBookie boxing analyst who joined the team midway through 2022 and will be providing boxing betting tips throughout the year for all of the big fights.
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We never recommend an actual stake to use for each bet as this will vary between people depending on the size of their betting bank. Never bet more than you can afford to lose and always stick to your staking plan.
WhichBookie boxing analyst Tim Rickson will publish tips whenever he finds value in a bet. If there is a big fight coming up, it’s likely that he will cover it but generally, they’ll be posted whenever a good bet comes about.
Many of the big boxing matches are only available via Pay Per View. However, you may be able to find streams of some of the less-popular fights via the Bet365 Live Streaming service. Bet365 provides over 100,000 live streams of sporting events every year and is regarded as one of the best services for streaming sports online without charge.
There are several options when it comes to betting on boxing, and the more you know, the better your chances of success. We will now go into more detail about some of the different betting markets that you will find, and discuss a few potential strategies you could use.
As with most sports, the outright market is probably the simplest, because you’re just betting on who will win the fight. There are no other criteria to consider, other than the fact that with many of the best bookies for boxing, you can also bet on the draw. However, draws in boxing are very rare and not many people tend to back this outcome.
Bear in mind that in many fights, one boxer tends to be a heavy favourite and it’s usually quite easy to pick the winner. There don’t tend to be that many shock results. Therefore, the odds on the favourite are often very low, even if you use the bookie with the best odds as described earlier in the article.
If you’re happy betting at short odds, you can certainly get a good success rate simply by backing short price favourites in boxing. But many people prefer to look for bigger wins. So you may sometimes need to look at some of the other markets to get a better return on your bet.
This market lets you choose not only who will win the fight, but how they will win. Different methods of victory are usually grouped as follows:
So because there are more possible outcomes in this market, the odds are higher than just the outright win market.
The Round Betting market offers the opportunity to get the highest odds. Here you can bet on which fighter will win, and which round he/she will win in.
Options to bet on a fighter to win on points, or to bet on the draw, are both also included in this market. In a 12 round bout, that gives 27 different possible outcomes. Therefore, the odds on each one are naturally going to be much higher. Think of it as the equivalent of the correct score market in football betting.
So the round betting market offers the biggest potential wins when betting on boxing. But of course, it’s harder to predict the outcome. You do have the option to split your stake to cover more than one outcome though. So if you felt that a fighter would win within the first 3 rounds, you could split your stake to back him to win in round 1, round 2 and round 3. The odds would mean you’d get a good profit if any of those outcomes happened.
This is a simple market in which you decide whether the fight will last all 12 rounds or not. Therefore there are only two outcomes to bet on, Yes or No.
It’s possible to get a decent success rate when betting on this market. Check the stats and the history of each boxer and ask yourself the following:
The answers to these key questions should give you a good idea of whether the fight is likely to go the distance or not. There can still be surprises, but you’ll certainly win more bets than you lose.
This market allows you to bet on the total number of rounds the fight will last for. The advantage here is that you do not need to specify who will win, just how long it will last.
For example, let’s consider a market of Over/Under 3.5 Rounds. There are only two options to bet on, either Over 3.5 Rounds or Under 3.5 Rounds. Therefore, you would approach the market as follows:
You will find that similar markets are available for Over/under 4.5, Over/Under 5.5, Over/Under 6.5 etc.
As any professional punter will tell you, the key to making a profit is not knowing who will win every time. Because obviously, that is not possible. The real trick is making sure that when you do win, you get the best possible odds on your bet.
We studied the odds for outright bets on every professional boxing match over a period of three months. We wanted to find the best bookies for boxing odds over a prolonged period of time.
As you would expect, Betfair and Bet365 are better than most of the competition. But the results showed that Betfred have the highest odds overall and came out well in some of the other markets like round betting.
Betfred were consistently best or equal best odds on nearly every outright market we recorded. They blew some of the other online bookies away in terms of the value they offered on boxing, and their user ratings are good too. So if you don’t have an account with them yet, we would definitely recommend joining.
| Best Bookies For Boxing | ||
|---|---|---|
 | Betfred | Visit |
 | Bet365 | Visit |
 | Betfair | Visit |
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