Betfair Chase – Haydock Park – Saturday 23rd November

What Saturday’s Betfair Chase at Haydock Park lacks in terms of a genuine, proven Grade 1 staying chaser or two, is comprehensively made up for when it comes to watcher/punter intrigue, as plenty seem happy to have a go.

Events of the next few days in terms of frost, precipitation and then a forecasted sizable chunk of rain on Saturday will dictate matters to some degree come off time at 3.05 on Saturday.

It’s notable that the market is aligning itself towards those having their first run of the season –  Grey Dawning, last year’s winner Royale Pagaille and the supplemented Capodanno are all in single figures in terms of price.

Grey Dawning could easily see the ground coming in his favour, and despite missing his intended prep run in the Charlie Hall Chase, Dan Skelton won’t have him short of a gallop here, as he intends to confirm him a genuine Gold Cup horse.

It’s not often one of last season’s leading novice chasers is sent off what will be a skinny favourite for the first Grade 1 of the season, but Grey Dawning has a lot of the attributes required to take the next step.

But for me, the market is suggesting he has already done so, and Royale Pagaille is coming here off the back of a nasty injury suffered in last season’s Cotswold Chase. Both he and the supplemented, seasonal debutant Capodanno have both been proven to be not quite of the same level as a peak form Ahoy Senor.

On a number of occasions when they have crossed swords in the spring, which has historically been Ahoy Senor’s happy hunting season, Lucinda Russell’s lovable beast has suggested he is just a bit better all things being equal.

So, with the Russell/Scudamore axis changing tack this season, and blowing away Ahoy Senor’s summer cobwebs in a much more varied and comprehensive fashion, (with ‘that’ run in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree a month ago,) it seems they are intent on landing an early season open company Grade 1, (to go with his novice Grade 1 wins over hurdles and fences.) All when the competition is less fierce perhaps, instead of going to the well against the top-notchers in the spring.

At 5/1 each-way with Bet365, Ladbrokes or Coral for 3 places, I think Ahoy Senor is worth a 2-star ** WhichBookie ante-post play. Should the ground look like it is going to turn towards the softer side, then the likes of Bravemansgame, The Real Whacker and Hewick might not turn up. Limerick Lace would also be a surprise runner, given owner JP McManus has supplemented Capodanno.

All told, whichever way you cut it, granted the expected improvement and a close to peak performance from Ahoy Senor, the only horse that might have the necessary improvement to beat him is Grey Dawning in my opinion.

Don’t be fooled by the fact that Ahoy Senor is supposedly a ‘spring’ horse, that is because he was being trained to be one. They say a change is as good as a rest, but in Ahoy Senor’s case, I don’t think he’s been resting… instead he’s being tuned to the minute for Saturday’s Betfair Chase and so should be supported at 5/1 each-way with Bet365, Ladbrokes or Coral.