Horse Racing Betting Tips Today

Will Smith Tips

Riskintheground

12.55 Ascot - Friday

* EW 2 places 1/4

14/1

Fine Casting

1.15 Haydock Park - Saturday

* EW 4 places 1/5

20/1

Patriotik

2.30 Haydock Park - Saturday

* EW 5 places 1/5

14/1

Phantomofthepoints

2.30 Haydock Park - Saturday

* EW 5 places 1/5

28/1

Colonel Mustard

2.45 Ascot - Saturday

* EW 2 places 1/4

10/1

Lucky 15

View Tips

4/1

Beat The Bat

Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap Hurdle - Haydock Park - Sat 23 Nov

Ante-Post

View Tips

11/2

Ahoy Senor

Betfair Chase - Haydock Park - Sat 23 Nov

Ante-Post

View Tips

5/1

FRIDAY:

So much to savour on the racing front this weekend, as the Closutton juggernaut lurches into gear for the season with the reappearance of the likes of State Man, Lossiemouth and Ballyburn for Willie Mullins at Punchestown, and they’ve even got a runner in the Betfair Chase.

They don’t have a runner on the card at Ascot on either Friday or Saturday, and the ground there could still be riding as close to ‘good’ all round for Friday’s card.

The GoingStick reading of 7.3 taken on Thursday evening is quicker than it was for the previous meeting at the Berkshire venue, and with a dry forecast overnight and through tomorrow, I think that will shape the outcome of the CopyBet Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase at Ascot at 12.55.

Gidleigh Park is clearly the most exciting horse on the whole card, and he ran extremely well in last season’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle on very testing ground, where he was keen and held up off a tempo which suited the prominent racers. It’s testament to his ability that he got into contention,  but ultimately faded into 6^th.

This race over 2m3f on good ground will be at the other end of the pace/stamina scale for him, and it is his chase debut. Clearly, his size and scope suggest he could devour fences for breakfast, but equally Ascot is not an easy place to jump round first time. At a shade of odds on, I can let him win.

Three of the other runners in the 5-runner affair have just a combined two chases start to their name – with Rare Edition outspeeding two horses who need 2m4f and soft ground over 2m on good ground at Uttoxeter, while Bad jumped very well here on chase debut but again found one too good and looks vulnerable again, and Bucksy Des Epeires is making his chase debut for a yard yet to get going this season, and would prefer much softer ground.

So, with 12 chase runs to his name and 4 wins – the experience, fitness, jumping prowess and speed that Riskintheground possesses for this 2m3f test on decent ground makes the 14/1 each-way available generally scarcely believable.

In a recent stable tour, it was suggested by Dan Skelton that he would be the type to aim at a decent handicap in the spring, but surely the £10k on offer to the winner here would be well worth pocketing for a trainer attempting to surge his way to a first UK trainer’s title.

The doubt is that he has been busy and that was a particularly tough race two weeks ago, but that’s maybe factored in to his price and it seems Riskintheground has thrived on racing anyhow, so I’m more than willing to take that chance at 14/1.

Riskintheground’s speed might see him to better effect back at 2m in time, as he ran the final circuit in the Badger Beers at Wincanton two weeks ago only just over 1 second slower than Soul Icon did in the Rising Stars Novices’ Chase. He is a 141-rated genuine Graded quality novice chaser, and this despite the final half mile stretching Riskintheground’s stamina – all suggesting to me that he is a very pacey type.

Not only that, but from the final fence on the penultimate circuit to the second last fence on the final circuit, Riskintheground was quicker than Soul Icon. That’s quick. Quick enough surely to be a real player back in a novice handicap against inexperienced rivals, who mostly might not be as suited to the specific task at hand on the day.

SATURDAY:

Showers overnight and through Friday, and more organised heavy rain due from early morning on Saturday, means that the ground on Betfair Chase day at Haydock Park will surely be edging towards soft as racing gets underway.

These softer conditions will be lovely for the ante-post selection Beat The Bat in the Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap Hurdle at Haydock Park at 1.15, who is available at a still valid 9/2 each-way with Ladbrokes or BetVictor for 4 places, if not already on at the 11/2 advised.

Chief reasons being that it was soft when he gave last weekend’s Greatwood Hurdle runner-up Dysart Enos plenty to think about last December, and also that Kamsinas, Steel Ally, Bowenspark and Anyharminasking would all prefer much better ground.

Dangers in the softer conditions would be Punta Del Este, Knight Of Allen and Josh The Boss – but the first couple I’m not convinced have as much ability as Beat The Bat and Josh The Boss would have been 100% fit and ready for his impressive Silver Trophy win, so might not be at that same level here.

They’re respected, but so too is the easy course and distance winner from two seasons ago, Fine Casting, could also be worth a small 1-star * Daily Value play at 20/1 each-way with Bet365, Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook.

Last season didn’t go to plan over fences for him, but it transpires he was found with a pelvic fracture which would explain a lot as to why he didn’t take to fences as he suggested he might. But with the stable’s runners rarely lacking for fitness first time out, and with the ground coming in his favour, the 20/1 each-way about an even close to peak form Fine Casting, would look very tempting.

The valuable Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at Haydock Park at 2.30 on Saturday will appear to many as at the mercy of the sharply progressive recent Cheltenham winner Doyen Quest, who bids to defy the penalty.

But Haydock is a funny hurdle track at times and wouldn’t be an obvious place to come from last-to-first like he did at Cheltenham, while very testing ground would also be an unknown at this level.

So, at lovely each-way prices, the claims of Patriotik at 14/1 each-way with William Hill for 5 places and also Phantomofthepoints at 28/1 each-way with Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook also for 5 places are worth investing in.

Regular readers of these pages (while having the clear patience of saints) will know that the Silver Trophy at Chepstow’s October meeting is a red-hot race to follow, and in particular those horses who raced towards the inside.

Patriotik flirted with that chewed up stuff at various moments through the race and did extremely well to hit the line stronger than most in 4^th. For the 2021 winning father/daughter combination of Evan and Isobel Williams, Patriotik looks to have been aimed at this race for a good while, and having just snuck in at the bottom of the weights, he can fulfil that plan and follow in the footsteps of Dans Le Vent.

Phantomofthepoints requires a little bit more of a leap of faith, but the case for him is fairly straight-forward, as the stable know very much what it takes to win this race. The fact that Phantomofthepoints’ best runs last year came early season, and now he is thrust into this valuable race on his seasonal debut, on his first try at a surely suitable staying trip, means that the 28/1 each-way is potentially very generous.

Also generous is the 10/1 each-way generally about Colonel Mustard in Saturday’s Howden Ascot Hurdle at Ascot at 2.45, as at his best he has finished within about 10 lengths of State Man over 2m on more than one occasion. None of this field can do that, and the only one that may have the potential to in time is Golden Ace, but her form as things stand is a million miles off that.

Colonel Mustard is the outsider of the whole field, despite having the best form, good recent runs on the clock in the last 9 months at Wincanton, Punchestown and Sligo, and will be nicely suited to 2m3f around Ascot as 2m has always just appeared to be on the sharp side for him.

Finally, he won’t mind which way the weather goes and must be backed at 10/1 each-way generally to land his first win since October 2021. In that time, he has run in 5 Grade 1’s, 4 Grade 2’s and 1 Grade 3, with form figures in these races reading 2337235253. His consistency, durability and class can surely go close to being rewarded in what is probably the weakest Graded race of his career.