Here you'll find football corners betting tips from our expert football analyst, Liam Johnson. All of the corner predictions published here on WhichBookie are 100% free.
It seems the Virgin Bet Eider Handicap Chase at Newcastle at 2.10 on Saturday hasn’t cut up in the manner I potentially saw when writing this and recommending the two 14/1 ante-post picks for WhichBookie.
These two aforementioned picks are available at 12/1 and 16/1 top price following declarations and would happily advise backing both with extra places also now on offer, if you already haven’t.
There is also one other horse to get onside for the race following declarations, and that is the 20/1 each-way with Bet365 for 5 places about the Welsh Grand National sixth Your Own Story. Lucinda Russell’s big galloper has had three runs so far this season, and each one has been better than the previous. Strongly suggesting that this particular 4m1½f test has long been this season’s plan.
When fit and in form, I don’t think there is any bottom to his stamina levels, and if you watch back through the mist and gloom on Welsh National day, you’d see Your Own Story hitting the line stronger than anything.
A factor that has also been evident when winning at Wetherby over 3m7f in 2023, when 6th in the Scottish Grand National that same season, and when 2nd at the Punchestown Festival over 3m7f last season.
So too, in the Borders National before the Welsh Grand National effort, Your Own Story ran exceptionally well in first-time cheekpieces. Better ground suits him well, and with it set to be in the region of ‘good to soft’ that will be much more to Your Own Story’s liking compared with the soft ground that saw him get behind at Chepstow.
It’s a rarity to have three darts in a race, but a big-field handicap like this with extra places and all three are 14/1+, then it’s not a mad idea that at least one will hit the frame at the very least. I’d be hopeful of bold shows from them all.
2.40 Southwell – Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed)
I like last time out winners for this type of race, and they’ve taken most renewals this century. In fact, if you look at last time out winners who ran in the last 30 days you’d have found plenty of winners, but if you looked just to 4-year-olds for that measure you’d have 5 winners from 11 for a 173% ROI. Those winners had a range of ratings from 85-105 but none of them were the Top Rated, even on weight adjusted ratings.
That’s boxes ticked for VALIANT FORCE who took the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes as a 2-year-old, for all that he was a 150/1 winner that day. He ended that phase with Adrian Murray finishing a half-length second to Big Evs in Santa Anita’s Group 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.
Since switching back to Adrian Murray, he’s run three times on the AW in Dundalk with two wins and a half length 4th placed finish which came in a Group 3. He prepped for this last month over 6 furlongs, but the best of his form is still at the minimum trip. That said, he at least showed a career equalling high RPR of 106 last time out and although he’s got a bit to find with a few in here on official figures on his first Tapeta start, I think he holds arguably the best form in the race.
VALIANT FORCE – 1 STAR EW @ 5/1 – 4 PLACES (BET365)
3.00 Kempton – Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
Proper race this one and you can make a case for plenty with my shortlist in agreement with the market order. I expect the winner to come from the front three but of that trio I believe that current favourite MIAMI MAGIC is entitled to be even shorter than he is.
He was beaten in Aintree, although there was only so much of that race that visible through the fog. Both Celtic Dino and Roadlesstravelled raced at the front along with Potters Charm and MIAMI MAGIC was never far behind but was happy enough taking a lead and travelled strongly. On the turn in, he looked to be travelling all over Potters Charm and having tipped up the latter I was tense waiting for them to appear back from through the fog. Not quite to be for Miami Magic that day but Potters Charm was ridden hard in the finish and for all that he flopped after, he is a very good horse with three consecutive 140’s RPR’s, including in defeat after this.
MIAMI MAGIC had Celtic Dino well behind who lost his battle for 3rd place to Good And Clever who managed another Grade 1 third placed finish in the DRF. Roadlesstravelled was pulled up even further behind and this is a drop back in Grade for all those three.
Stuart Edmunds is a fine target trainer with a 44% strike rate with runners in non-handicaps priced 3/1 or shorter for about a 14% ROI. He has a 50% strike rate with favourites sub 3/1 in non-handicaps and over an 80% place strike rate. In a smaller sample, he’s 2 from 3 in Grade 2’s with runners under 3/1 and 2 from 2 with favourites, confirming that this isn’t his first rodeo.
He also gets 3lbs from both Tripoli Flyer and Celtic Dino on top of being the highest rated runner, and before that Aintree run his win over course and distance was a visually impressive one. Although the runner up was beaten next time out, they won after when stepping up in trip and are rated 126 themselves and the back form of a horse like Tripoli Flyer is in defeat to the likes of Jurancon, who himself is a 127 rated horse now.
I like the way Jurancon has been brought forward by Fergal O’Brien and pitched in here now, but he does need to show more than he has, especially in the jumping department and the penalty just makes that gap even further to bridge. Celtic Dino is probably better than he showed the last day, but again conceding weight to a horse he’s been beaten by doesn’t spark the most confidence despite his trainer having previous in this race. This trio have all had the three runs to date so I don’t see the trajectory being in favour of any one horse in particular and on these terms MIAMI MAGIC will be very hard to beat.
MIAMI MAGIC – 3 STAR WIN @ 15/8 (BET365)
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