Horse Racing Betting Tips Today

Will Smith Tips

Fine Casting

13:15 Haydock Park

1/5 (4 Places)

20/1

Patriotik

14:30 Haydock Park

1/5 (5 Places)

14/1

Phantomofthepoints

14:30 Haydock Park

1/5 (5 Places)

18/1

Colonel Mustard

14:45 Ascot

1/4 (4 Places)

10/1

Lucky 15

View Tips

5/1

Beat The Bat

Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap Hurdle - Haydock Park - Sat 23 Nov

** EW 4 places 1/5

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11/2

Ahoy Senor

Betfair Chase - Haydock Park - Sat 23 Nov

** EW 3 places 1/5

View Tips

5/1

SATURDAY:

Showers overnight and through Friday, and more organised heavy rain due from early morning on Saturday, means that the ground on Betfair Chase day at Haydock Park will surely be edging towards soft as racing gets underway.

These softer conditions will be lovely for the ante-post selection Beat The Bat in the Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap Hurdle at Haydock Park at 1.15, who is available at a still valid 9/2 each-way with Ladbrokes or BetVictor for 4 places, if not already on at the 11/2 advised.

Chief reasons being that it was soft when he gave last weekend’s Greatwood Hurdle runner-up Dysart Enos plenty to think about last December, and also that Kamsinas, Steel Ally, Bowenspark and Anyharminasking would all prefer much better ground.

Dangers in the softer conditions would be Punta Del Este, Knight Of Allen and Josh The Boss – but the first couple I’m not convinced have as much ability as Beat The Bat and Josh The Boss would have been 100% fit and ready for his impressive Silver Trophy win, so might not be at that same level here.

They’re respected, but so too is the easy course and distance winner from two seasons ago, Fine Casting, could also be worth a small 1-star * Daily Value play at 20/1 each-way with Bet365, Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook.

Last season didn’t go to plan over fences for him, but it transpires he was found with a pelvic fracture which would explain a lot as to why he didn’t take to fences as he suggested he might. But with the stable’s runners rarely lacking for fitness first time out, and with the ground coming in his favour, the 20/1 each-way about an even close to peak form Fine Casting, would look very tempting.

The valuable Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at Haydock Park at 2.30 on Saturday will appear to many as at the mercy of the sharply progressive recent Cheltenham winner Doyen Quest, who bids to defy the penalty.

But Haydock is a funny hurdle track at times and wouldn’t be an obvious place to come from last-to-first like he did at Cheltenham, while very testing ground would also be an unknown at this level.

So, at lovely each-way prices, the claims of Patriotik at 14/1 each-way with William Hill for 5 places and also Phantomofthepoints at 28/1 each-way with Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook also for 5 places are worth investing in.

Regular readers of these pages (while having the clear patience of saints) will know that the Silver Trophy at Chepstow’s October meeting is a red-hot race to follow, and in particular those horses who raced towards the inside.

Patriotik flirted with that chewed up stuff at various moments through the race and did extremely well to hit the line stronger than most in 4^th. For the 2021 winning father/daughter combination of Evan and Isobel Williams, Patriotik looks to have been aimed at this race for a good while, and having just snuck in at the bottom of the weights, he can fulfil that plan and follow in the footsteps of Dans Le Vent.

Phantomofthepoints requires a little bit more of a leap of faith, but the case for him is fairly straight-forward, as the stable know very much what it takes to win this race. The fact that Phantomofthepoints’ best runs last year came early season, and now he is thrust into this valuable race on his seasonal debut, on his first try at a surely suitable staying trip, means that the 28/1 each-way is potentially very generous.

Also generous is the 10/1 each-way generally about Colonel Mustard in Saturday’s Howden Ascot Hurdle at Ascot at 2.45, as at his best he has finished within about 10 lengths of State Man over 2m on more than one occasion. None of this field can do that, and the only one that may have the potential to in time is Golden Ace, but her form as things stand is a million miles off that.

Colonel Mustard is the outsider of the whole field, despite having the best form, good recent runs on the clock in the last 9 months at Wincanton, Punchestown and Sligo, and will be nicely suited to 2m3f around Ascot as 2m has always just appeared to be on the sharp side for him.

Finally, he won’t mind which way the weather goes and must be backed at 10/1 each-way generally to land his first win since October 2021. In that time, he has run in 5 Grade 1’s, 4 Grade 2’s and 1 Grade 3, with form figures in these races reading 2337235253. His consistency, durability and class can surely go close to being rewarded in what is probably the weakest Graded race of his career.

David Young Tips

Beat The Bat

13:15 Haydock Park

WIN

5/1

Thunder Rock

14:45 Ascot

WIN

5/1

Ahoy Senor

15:05 Haydock Park

WIN

11/2

Martator

15:20 Ascot

WIN

15/8

13:15 Haydock – Handicap Hurdle – 2m 3f

This looks a pretty deep handicap hurdle where I think the form will carry through the season but I’m convinced that BEAT THE BAT will end the season rated in the 140’s so his mark of 132 certainly looks exploitable.

He’s bred to want this trip at least and his two runs last season at about 2m 3f saw him a narrow second to the now 137 rated Masaccio and a narrow victor over a now 130 horse. Within those two lines you’d suggest his mark looks about right, however they pulled well clear of the third on each occasion and he looked to be crying out for a faster pace to aim at. When dropped back to 2m 1f after in Cheltenham he gave 7lbs to the Greatwood 3rd Dysart Enos who managed that off a mark of 131 herself.

The fact he wasn’t seen after that run means we just don’t know how good he might be, and of course he’s clearly had an issue. Worst case scenario he’s just handicapped to his worth and with just 3 runs over hurdles under his belt, normal progression would suggest he’ll move beyond that. Best case scenario, he’s very well handicapped with that normal progression and step back up in trip with a proper handicap pace to work with.

Risks attached with a first-time up runner after a setback are accepted, but they’ve chosen to make this handicap debut in a competitive enough race and the last time Harry Fry sent one here, it was Black Mischief who took the spoils as a 6yo.

BEAT THE BAT – 1 STAR WIN @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)

14:45 Ascot – Ascot Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m 3 ½f

I think it’s worth taking a chance on THUNDER ROCK reverting back to smaller obstacles for the first time since April 2022. Olly Murphy’s 8yo was highly touted last season to land a big middle distance handicap over fences and was send off a 3/1 favourite for Cheltenham’s December Gold Cup. He wasn’t able to go over fences at the pace that race asked of him so there is a small concern about a fiercely run contest over either obstacle. Connections did hint at coming back over hurdles before he picked up a listed success over Minella Drama so I don’t think this is negative stance by the horse, it’s a positive in my eyes.

Back hurdling amongst 140’s horses should suit and while his jumping wasn’t the best as a Novice, he’s jumped best fresh the last couple of seasons and his record after breaks reads 3, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2. He’s won on ground from good all the way to heavy, but he certainly doesn’t look to want a bog. He posted his peak Novice RPR here on his second start over fences at this meeting two years ago so there’s bundle to like about him.

Despite being rated 7lbs lower over hurdles he comes out on top on weight adjusted ratings, but his 7 of his 9 completed chase starts have seen an RPR over 150 or above which is better than anything else in the field apart from last years winner Blueking d’Oroux who has to concede 6lbs here. He also had a prep run last season before landing this, so I think there’s more than enough to suggest the current price for THUNDER ROCK is worth playing, especially while the yard are having plenty of winners.

THUNDER ROCK – 2 STAR WIN @ 5/1 (William Hill, Betvictor, Boylesports)

15:05 Haydock – Betfair Chase – 3m 1 ½f

It’s the first Grade 1 of the British jumps season and we’ve ended up with a really decent renewal. 5 of the 9 runners (including Limerick Lace’s mares allowance) are rated 160 or above and two are just below on 159 and then there’s the favourite Grey Dawning off of 157. There’s no doubt he was an impressive novice last season and while he made some mistakes at his fences, he did improve through racing. Coming here fresh into open company will likely require a 7lbs or more career best effort and as connection wanted a prep run, I’m a little concerned for him despite respecting his potential. 

He’s one of three horses who I think have been aimed at this race from a long way out and last years winner Royale Pagaille is clearly another one. He loves this track, loves ease underfoot and does go well fresh, but he’s not been seen for longer than usual and he is a 10yo now although I’m sure will fill the frame.

The third horse is AHOY SENOR who had looked a shadow of his Novice self when first stepping into his open season 2 years ago. He was a beat favourite on his first two starts that season before coming back to win the Grade 2 Cotswold chase. Despite the route not going to plan first time round, the yard persisted and started in Wetherby again last season before then throwing him into handicap company for a tilt at the Coral Gold Cup off a mark of 169. He failed to complete in either start. A few more encouraging runs after he then ran back up to hid potential when second to Gerri Colombe in Aintree before all but matching that effort on seasonal reappearance in the Old Roan, again in Aintree. He was much talked about for the ride he was given but he was never winning that race on that day. He was, very encouraging though and I think the race panned out as expected and he certainly ran back up to his best.

I do concede that his better efforts have come when he’s had a rail on his left all the way to the line, but his win in Newbury as a Novice he came down the middle of the track and just blitzed his opponents that day. Haydock should suit him and while I have some reservations about being a rail that sit stands-side typically in the finish here, after the last the inside rails comes back close to them and I’d expect he’ll not be alone up to that point.

AHOY SENOR – 1 STAR WIN @ 11/2 (Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral)

15:20 Ascot – Handicap Chase – 2m 1f

MARTATOR was a very comfortable winners here last month at the line and looked to be well ahead of his mark. The handicapper has responded with a 6lb rise but that might not be enough to stop him I’d say. Venetia has taken the choice to use Ned Fox on board who can claim 5lbs but probably more so because Charlie Deutsch is riding up in Haydock.

I don’t think he needs to run any better than he did last time out to notch up his 5-timer and there’s plenty of pace in the race to aim it so it should be a very similar running to last time out.

MARTATOR – 2.5 STAR WIN @ 15/8 (William Hill)