Horse Racing Betting Tips Today

Will Smith Tips

Captains Nephew

1.45 Fairyhouse

* EW 4 places 1/5

25/1

Classic Concorde

2.58 Ffos Las

* EW 4 places 1/5

33/1

Lucky 15

View Tips

11/4

Jango Baie

Brown Advisory Novices' Chase

Ante-Post

View Tips

20/1

Inspections first thing in the morning will determine whether we see any jumps action on Saturday, but you’d have to be fairly hopeful looking at the forecast overnight temperatures towards the western reaches of the British Isles, that the meetings at Fairyhouse and Ffos Las will get the go-ahead.

If so, there are a couple of nice 1-star * Daily Value each-way selections to get involved with. Firstly, in the feature SBK Dan & Joan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse at 1.45, and it’s no surprise that messrs Mullins, Elliott and De Bromhead are responsible for the top 7 on the betting.

But this big battalion bias has led to one horse being priced up initially at very tempting odds, and in my opinion a good bit above where he should be.

At 25/1 each-way with Coral for 4 places, Captains Nephew is said horse and looks to have been lined up for a tilt at this valuable prize over a course and distance that suits him very well.

Captains Nephew spent most of last season progressing nicely over fences, having been a tad unlucky in some top-notch handicap hurdles. Indeed, he won a valuable novices’ handicap chase over C&D last March and off the back of an excellent comeback run at Navan over a trip that will have stretched him, and being asked to race on the unfavoured inside of the track for most of the race, Captains Nephew should be backed each-way at anything 10/1+ in my eyes.

Ffos Las also hold an intriguing card, with the re-directed Towton Novices’ Chase looking a quality affair, a couple of decent handicaps, and also two maiden hurdles that will produce some nice horses in time.

The vote for most overpriced horse on the card however goes to the old boy Classic Concorde at 33/1 each-way with Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook for 4 places in the DragonBet The Independent Bookmaker Handicap Hurdle at 2.58 at Ffos Las.

Progressive, young and decent stayers-in-the-making One Big Bang, Rosscahill and Mahland might all look to have excellent chances, but there is simply no way Classic Concorde should be such a wild price.

Having always floated around the 100-110 mark on ratings, something really clicked last season, and he reeled off 6 handicap hurdle wins for local trainer David Brace, after a rejuvenating spell point-to-pointing.

Maybe as a 12-year-old now, and with form figures of 09 this season, the layers have been hoodwinked into thinking too literally about Classic Concorde’s form, profile and therefore price. The ‘0’ was on ground way too lively at a track that wouldn’t have suited and on seasonal reappearance, and the ‘9’ came in the Welsh National 2 weeks ago.

Classic Concorde was bang there at the top of the straight in that most testing of races over fences, (which he has never been as adept over), and so reverting to hurdles in a lesser race, at a track where he is 1 from 1, the 33/1 available is well worth snapping up.

David Young Tips

Rosscahill

2.58 Ffos Las

* Win

11/4

Ostrava Du Berlais

3.31 Ffos Las

* Win

5/2

2.58 Ffos Las – Handicap Hurdle – 3m

This is a 0-140 handicap but taking out the top weight Stolen Silver, it’s a 0-130 with the next highest rated runner being 12yo West To The Bridge. There’s a chance that Stolen Silver going back on a slower surface might see him spark back to life, but being a good ground winner in the past, it feels like we’re reaching to have any confidence the first time cheek-pieces on a 10yo are going to solve his current problems. I thought he was worth mentioning because he looks a very big price, but it would take more than a leap of faith to follow him in at the moment.

Much further down the weights comes a horse who is unbeaten in his career, 2 from 2 at this track and making his handicap debut. That horse is ROSSCAHILL who notched up his first win on Good To Soft ground over 2m 6f here then followed up last month on Heavy ground back down to 2m 4f. He’s a Soft to Heavy point-to-point winner where he stayed on strongly through the line. The runner up hasn’t achieved much under rules but the third who was 7 lengths behind is now rated 123 in Ireland and was pitched into Grade 2 company just 4 months after this point-to-point was run. The 4^th bolted up himself next time out and was seen second last March in a bumper, but with an RPR of 124 which isn’t achieved by many in that code.

On his hurdling debut he beat Andy Amo who is now rated 115. He beat him by just under 5 lengths but was worth more than that under only a hands and heel ride. In his last start he beat Ben Solo who is rated 119 and a fair enough yardstick at about that figure and looked certain to win the race as they turned for home, but ROSSCAHILL just ground out more in the finish to win going away in the end. That was over 2m 4f so this step back up in trip and even further than he’s been before looks to be certain to suit and should bring about even more improvement. I also think the while he handled the Heavy ground in that race, he looked better the time before on Soft.

This is his biggest test to date and there are cases that can be made for a few, but I’m sure connections were thrilled seeing a card being put on at this track for him to run at it again. He’s been exclusive to Ffos Las under rules and that might be by design. So, while I mentioned Stolen Silver, who we know is better class horse than any 120 rated runners, he’s looking a shadow of his former self, and this looks like an opportunity worth chancing on the Nigel Twiston-Davies trained runner to pick up a reasonable pot on handicap debut.

ROSSCAHILL – 1 STAR WIN @ 11/4

3.31 Ffos Las – Handicap Chase – 2m

Another 0-140 here but the top 2 are rated 135 and 134 respectively and I think Sir Psycho wants further and his stable-mate Hubrisko is the same. Beatbox has climbed from 89 to 130 over fences for the Skeltons with 6 wins from 7 but it’s hard to take his last run literally when the favourite fell early and the finishers behind have been well beaten or pulled up on their most recent runs prior.

Preference is given to Venetia Williams’ OSTRAVA DU BERLAIS who has climbed from 95 up to 113 in just three runs this season, following Wind Surgery and the application of a hood. She received an RPR of 128 last time out which is 15lbs higher than her official rating here of 113 following a 9lb rise. The runner up was a last time out winner off just a 3lb lower mark, and the 4^th had won two starts back off a 2lb lower mark. While I accept the inconsistencies that occur in that Class of company, it still looks like OSTRAVA DU BERLAIS was just miles better than those rivals.

Clearly this is a bigger task now stepping into a Class 3 from a Class 5, but she was entitled to need her first run of the season when she stayed on to be a good second in a race where the third was long way back. The winner that day is up 17lbs since and came in after a prep run and was supported in the market too.

While it’s Soft ground compared to Good ground from last time out, it is over 2 furlongs shorter, and I do think this horse is better than her current mark so I’m willing to take a chance that she too can defy the step up in Class.

OSTRAVA DU BERLAIS – 1 STAR WIN @ 5/2