Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase – Ascot – Saturday 15th February

Somewhat remarkably, the last three horses that the Tizzard stable (Joe currently and Colin previously) have run in the Saturday’s Ebony Horse Club Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at 1.50 at Ascot, have all won.

Oscar Elite in 2023 was preceded by Copperhead in 2020 and Mister Malarky in 2019, and this year they look set to be represented by the ultra-consistent, silver medal-winning machine that is The Changing Man.

Now, the instant reaction to a horse like The Changing Man who has gone off short on all 4 chase starts this season, (and has three runner-up spots on his card following a fall at Wincanton,) is to instantly crab him. ‘He never wins,’ ‘twicer,’ ‘weak finisher’ and ‘one to avoid’ are all labels that this type of horse can garner.

It is the reason that 12/1 has been offered up by William Hill for Saturday’s race, and more generally 8/1 across the board with the other firms. Horses with various ‘1’s next to their name are all priced up shorter than The Changing Man.

This nominal bias is simply wrong in my opinion, and if you delve a little deeper into his performances this season then you will see why. At Wincanton, The Changing Man was still travelling ominously well when coming down 6 out and of course it’s too far out to know how he would have fared, but the ease with which he was going off a very strong tempo was notable.

Then all three of his next starts have come in the very deepest of open handicap company, with silver medals from the Rehearsal Chase, the Silver Cup (over Saturday’s Reynoldstown C&D) and the Great Yorkshire Chase.

On all three occasions he has simply bumped into a horse who was cherry ripe on the day, and there has been absolutely no disgrace in doing so, as on all three occasions The Changing Man has contributed to a pace that has ensured all three races were respectively the fastest contests on each card.

The prospect of a small field, dropping back into novice company with experience dripping off him, his medals emblazoned on his chest and an ability to jump and travel on the front end around a course that suits, and on drying ground which he will adore – the 12/1 about The Changing Man is clearly wrong in my eyes.

Given it could disappear in one fell swoop, I’m recommending a 1-star * ante-post selection for WhichBookie at 8/1 each-way generally for 3 places. Of course, if you can get the 12s, don’t delay!

For those of you who will point to the unexposed and improving nature of the likes of Jingko Blue and Lowry’s Bar, I would concur that they are nice horses, but none have done anything like the numbers of The Changing Man, yet.

In fact, the Windsor race these two fought out was only run marginally quicker on the final circuit compared with the later marathon handicap chase, run over further and contested by 0-125 horses.