Analysing Paul Nicholls’ Grade 1 Hopefuls at the Grand National Meeting

Paul Nicholls has had a frustrating season, to say the least. The 14-time British Champion Trainer is over £650,000 behind former assistant Dan Skelton in the race for the Trainers’ Championship, while he is operating off one of his worst strike rates in years (18%) at the time of writing.

However, a couple of his horses provided a glimmer of hope for Team Ditcheat heading into the Spring—with Nicholls hoping to end the season strong at Aintree before heading to Sandown for the jumps’ finale at the end of April.

Pic D’Orhy landed the top trainer his first Grade 1 success of the season when defending his Ascot Chase crown in February, and Rubaud secured the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase at Kempton the following week. 

Nicholls has five potential Grand National runners— which would be his most in the iconic contest since 2017—and at least three hopefuls in the Grade 1s at the meeting. So, without further ado, let’s take a look at some of the horses gunning for top-level glory at Aintree. 

Pic D’Orhy – Melling Chase

One of the horses we’ve mentioned already, Pic D’Orhy bypassed the Cheltenham Festival in pursuit of the Melling Chase.  

The 10-year-old won this race in 2023 when beating Fakir d’Oudairies but was pulled up by Harry Coben last year. 

However, he underwent wind surgery during the off-season and has won twice at his beloved Ascot this campaign. 

Pic D’Orhy’s first win in Berkshire came in the Grade 2 1965 Chase, beating Hidden Depths by over three lengths to retain his title, and he streaked clear of Corbetts Cross to win the Ascot Chase easily last time out.   

The Melling Chase field is likely to be much tougher than what he’s faced at Ascot this season, but if Pic D’Orhy shows up in form, he could be a danger. 

Rubaud – Manifesto Novices’ Chase

The other horse we mentioned earlier, Rubaud was a useful hurdler with eight wins in his 15 starts over the smaller obstacles—including four wins at Grade 2 level—and he got off the mark on his third chasing start last month. 

After a Listed win over hurdles at Kempton on his reappearance and a Grade 2 win over Brentford Hope in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton, the seven-year-old made the switch to fences and fell on his debut in the Wayward Lad. 

Then held by the highly-regarded L’Eau du Sud in the Kingmaker at Warwick, Rubaud fought incredibly hard to win the Pendil Novices’ Chase—keeping on gamely on the run-in to win by a length. 

It was a win that pleasantly surprised Nicholls, who said: “He will run in the Manifesto Novices’ Chase over two and a half miles. He won well on Saturday, but I’m surprised he won with the position he was in. He pulled a shoe off and he pulled the bulb of his heel off when he made a mistake half way down the back.

“He got the trip well the other day and the trainer must have been running over the wrong trip! He surprised me Saturday as I thought the ground was too soft and it was too far, but he was brilliant.”

Stage Star – Aintree Bowl

Nicholls holds the record for the most Aintree Bowl wins with six victories, including twice with Silviniaco Conti and Clan Des Obeaux. 

The 62-year-old hopes Stage Star can extend that record seven this year after a promising display over a similar trip at Cheltenham last time. 

The nine-year-old largely struggled last year, failing to even place in four outings throughout 2024, but seemed to appreciate the step up in trip to three miles, one-and-a-half furlongs for the Cotswolds Chase when only narrowly denied by L’Homme Presse. 

That has left Nicholls confident going to Merseyside, claiming: “He ran a super race in the Cotswold Chase in his first try over a trip further than three miles. He travelled and jumped well and Harry was always just hanging on to him a little bit.

“In hindsight he was amazed how well he stayed on strongly. He could have probably strode on a little bit turning in. But as he had not been over that trip he quite rightly held on to him and got into a right old battle from the back of the last.

“He was in a great rhythm in the Cotswold Chase as he was in his comfort zone, he jumped fantastic and stayed on well up the hill. He loves a left handed track and going up in trip has seen plenty of improvement in him. He is not unlike Conti and Clan.